El Niño places greater emphasis on water management
South Africa is preparing for the possibility of a hotter, drier 2026/27 summer as climate forecasts indicate that a strengthening El Niño is likely to bring above-normal temperatures across much of the country, together with an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across the summer rainfall regions from late 2026 into early 2027. Although impacts will differ between regions, particularly because the Western Cape follows a different rainfall pattern, the forecast highlights the importance of improving how available water is managed before dry conditions intensify.
Why soil matters for water security
Water security depends on more than the amount of water stored in dams. It is also influenced by how effectively soils absorb, store and gradually release rainfall. When soils are compacted and depleted of organic matter, rainfall is more likely to run off into stormwater systems instead of soaking into the ground. During hotter conditions, these soils also lose moisture more rapidly through evaporation, placing additional pressure on irrigation systems, agriculture and municipal water supplies.
Healthy soils behave differently because they contain higher levels of organic matter. Organic matter improves soil structure, creating spaces that allow water to infiltrate more easily and remain available to plants for longer periods. Research indicates that every 1% increase in soil organic matter can enable soils to retain approximately 160,000 to 170,000 additional litres of water per hectare. In sandy soils, compost applications can increase moisture-holding capacity by as much as 2.5 times compared with untreated soils.
This is particularly significant in South Africa, where average annual rainfall is approximately 464 mm, almost half the global average of around 860 mm. Every rainfall event therefore becomes more valuable because the country’s long-term water security depends not only on how much rain falls, but also on how much of that water remains within the landscape.
Organic waste is part of the solution
This is where the circular economy becomes directly connected to climate adaptation. South Africa generates an estimated 10 million tonnes of organic waste each year. When this material is sent to landfill, its nutrient value is lost while methane emissions increase. When processed aerobically on-site, however, organic waste is converted into compost that can rebuild soil organic matter and improve the landscape’s ability to retain moisture. Waste that would otherwise contribute to environmental pressures instead becomes a resource that helps prepare communities, farms and public spaces for periods of reduced rainfall.
Preparing soils for a changing climate
As South Africa prepares for the possibility of another El Niño summer, climate resilience will depend not only on protecting water resources, but also on improving the condition of the soils that receive them. Compost demonstrates that managing organic waste is not simply a waste management activity. It is also a practical investment in water security, healthier soils and greater preparedness for a changing climate.
ENDS.